Defending Against Medigap Rate Increases: A Ten-Year Playbook
The biggest cost in a Medigap policy is not the premium you see — it is the premium you will pay in year eight. Entry quotes are marketing; increase history is destiny. This playbook shows how premium structures compound, how to read a carrier’s increase record, and what levers you actually hold as the years pass.
Why pricing model determines your future
Three structures exist. Attained-age rates rise as your age bracket rises — plus whatever annual increases the carrier files. A $130 age-65 G on a hot book becomes $220+ by 73 through pure bracket drift. Issue-age locks the 65 rate and drifts only with the book’s overall increases — flatter, but often a higher entry point. Community-rated pools all ages entirely. The trap: an attained-age book that is 15% cheaper at 65 can be 40% more expensive at 72.
| Year | Attained-age @ 4%/yr + brackets | Issue-age @ 3%/yr |
|---|---|---|
| 65 (start) | $130 | $145 |
| 70 | $172 | $168 |
| 75 | $218 | $195 |
Reading increase history like an actuary
Carriers file increases with state DOI regulators; five-year records are public. The signals that matter: frequency (annual small increases beat sporadic 12% jumps), pattern (steady 2–3% is a managed book; 6%+ recurring is a death spiral), and cohort behavior (books that went cheap-then-spiked after attracting volume). A carrier can have a gentle G book and a violent N book — history is per-plan, not per-company.
The levers you hold
First, re-shop at renewal — allowed anytime, but outside GI states it requires underwriting, so your health at application is the constraint. Second, exploit state rights where they exist: birthday-rule states (California and about a dozen others) grant annual no-underwriting switching; New York and Washington go further. Third, letter-downgrade: moving G-to-N within the same carrier is often underwritten lightly or not at all — ask. Fourth, HD-G migration for the healthy-with-reserves. Fifth, document everything about your health at purchase; it defines which future doors stay open.
The ten-year plan
Buy issue-age or community-rated unless the attained-age gap is extreme. Re-quote every renewal even if you do not switch — you need the market price as leverage and as an underwriting reality check. Track your carrier’s filings annually (ten minutes). And budget a 3%/yr increase into retirement math rather than the 0% the brochure implies. Buyers who follow this pattern rarely face a premium crisis; buyers who set-and-forget on a teaser attained-age book frequently do.
Related: pricing models compared, increase pattern library, the age curve.